Rise of the Gulf
波斯灣崛起

Soaring ambition

壯志凌云

Economic power and political influence are shifting to the Gulf. Can it last?
政治和經濟力量匯聚波斯灣，不知能否長久。

Jan 8th 2015, 14:26| From the print edition of The Economist

譯者：歌姬

DUBAI likes to set records. It has the world’s tallest building (the Burj Khalifa), the largest shopping centre (the Dubai Mall) and the longest handmade gold chain (5.52km), to name but three. But beyond mere ostentation, the city-state has more substantial achievements to its credit. In the year to September Dubai airport overtook Heathrow in London to become the world’s busiest international hub, with some 68.9m passengers using it yearly.

迪拜喜歡打造世界紀錄。它擁有世界最高建筑哈利法塔（the Burj Khalifa），最大購物中心迪拜購物廣場（the Dubai Mall）以及長達5520千米的世界最長手工金鏈，然而得以命名的僅有三個。不過除了單純的炫富，這個城邦里名副其實的成就也大有可觀。截至9月，迪拜機場一年內大約接待旅客6990萬人次，超過英國希斯羅機場（Heathrow）成為世界最繁忙的國際中心。

Oil wealth, geography, ambition and, it seems, canny investment, have turned Dubai into a major transit hub, especially for people and goods moving into or through the Middle East. Emirates, Dubai’s flagship carrier, is one of the world’s leading airlines. The Jebel Ali port ranks as the world’s ninth busiest. Dubai World Central, a logistics hub around a new airport, will be twice the size of Hong Kong island when completed. It is served by some of the world’s most modern roads. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), of which Dubai is one of seven federated components, is building a railway, part of a proposed $25 billion network connecting the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

石油財富，地勢，野心，以及似乎精明的投資已讓迪拜成為重要的運輸中心，尤其是對于往來于中東地區(qū)的人和貨物來說。迪拜一流的貨運公司阿聯(lián)酋航空公司（Emirates）是世界領先的航空公司之一。阿里山港則是世界繁忙程度第九的港口。新機場旁的物流中心迪拜世界中心（Dubai World Central）在建成后將有香港島的兩倍大。那里有一些世界上最為現(xiàn)代化的近岸錨地。迪拜是阿聯(lián)酋（UAE）的七個成員酋長國之一。而阿聯(lián)酋正在修建的鐵路是斥資250億美元打造的鐵路網的一部分，該項目將把海灣合作委員會（GCC）的六個成員國連通起來。

Just as important, says Fadi Ghandour, the founder of Aramex, a Dubai-based logistics company, is that the city has excellent “soft infrastructure”. “Dubai has the right laws, and officials treat businesses like clients and implement what they say they will,” he says. One example is the customs-free corridor between the port and airport, which allows businesses to import and export raw materials without charge. There are no exchange controls and no taxes. Little wonder that DHL, a logistics company, ranked the UAE at number 12 in its annual global connectedness index, a measure of globalisation, one spot behind Hong Kong and ahead of France and Italy.

迪拜的貨運公司中東快遞公司（Aramex）創(chuàng)始人法蒂·甘杜爾（Fadi Ghandour）稱：“這個城市極好的軟基礎措施同樣具有重要意義。迪拜的法律完善。官員視商家為顧客，并且會去貫徹實行他們承諾過的事?！备劭谂c機場間的免稅通道就是個例子，那兒允許商家免費進出口原材料，并且沒有外匯限制和稅收。因此就衡量全球化水平的標準之一，即每年的全球連通性指數(shù)來說，少有人會驚異于在阿聯(lián)酋位列十二的貨運公司敦豪速遞公司（DHL）會領先于法國，意大利，次于香港。

Due in part to Dubai’s growth, the UAE has become the region’s economic centre of gravity, which in turn has encouraged it to become more assertive politically (an ambition driven in part by Dubai’s neighbour, Abu Dhabi). “It is a defining moment for the GCC to take leadership,” says Nasser Saidi, a Lebanese economist based in Dubai. “Only the UAE has the energy, youth and vision to do so—and it seems keen to.” The UAE’s air force took part in the NATO-led combat mission over Libya in 2011 and is currently part of the coalition against Islamic State in Syria (though America continues to conduct the vast majority of strikes). Along with Saudi Arabia, the Gulf’s traditional power, it is pumping funds to prop up Egypt’s Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, the general who ousted the Muslim Brotherhood in 2013. The UAE has put pressure on other countries, including Britain, to curb political Islam.

某種程度上由于迪拜的發(fā)展，阿聯(lián)酋已然成為該地區(qū)重要的經濟中心，然后又促使其更有政治主見。這種野心部分是受到迪拜鄰國阿布達比酋長國的驅使。常駐在迪拜的黎巴嫩經濟學家納賽爾·薩伊迪（Nasser Saidi）說：“這是海灣合作委員會取得領導權的關鍵時刻。只有阿聯(lián)酋有精力，活力和洞察力做到這些，而且其似乎正有此意?！?011年，阿聯(lián)酋的空軍參加了針對利比亞的由北約領導的戰(zhàn)斗任務?，F(xiàn)在，它是抵抗敘利亞伊斯蘭國聯(lián)盟的一部分，盡管美國仍繼續(xù)指揮著絕大多數(shù)的襲擊行動。除了沙特阿拉伯，阿聯(lián)酋也正投入大量資金支持埃及的阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西（Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi）。這位將軍于2013年驅逐了穆斯林兄弟會（the Muslim Brotherhood）[1]。為了約束伊斯蘭政治力量，阿聯(lián)酋已經向其他國家施壓，其中包括英國。

Part of Dubai’s success is down to its location—between Europe, Asia and Africa—and its stability in a region plagued by war and stagnant politics. “It is the only safe haven for everybody in a sea of troubles all around,” says Mr Saidi.

迪拜的成功部分得益于其地理位置，它地處歐亞非三塊大陸之間。同時，雖然所在區(qū)域政治腐敗，并遭受著戰(zhàn)爭滋擾，但迪拜卻政局穩(wěn)定。這也是成功原因之一。薩伊迪說：“那里對于周邊所有身陷麻煩的人來說，是唯一安全的天堂?！?br>
Dubai’s rulers undoubtedly had vision. When Mr Ghandour founded Aramex in 1982 he located it in Bahrain, then the region’s leading financial centre. By the mid-1980s he had moved to Dubai. Other Gulf states are now seeking to emulate Dubai’s success. Little more than an hour down the road from Dubai, Abu Dhabi is expanding its airport, the base of Etihad, another world-class airline. Abu Dhabi has arranged a loan of 300m dirhams ($82m) to expand its Al Khalifa port.

迪拜的管理者無疑頗有遠見。1982年，甘杜爾在巴林創(chuàng)立了中東快遞公司，當時巴林是該地區(qū)重要的金融中心。但上個世紀80年代中期之前，他就已將公司遷往迪拜?，F(xiàn)在，其他海灣國家爭相效仿迪拜的成功模式。距離迪拜僅一小時路程的阿布達比酋長國正在擴建另一個世界級航空公司阿提哈德機場（Etihad），并且該國已經貸款3億迪拉姆[2]，即8200萬美元，擴建哈利法港。

Qatar has just opened a new airport and Qatar Airways, bigger than Etihad but smaller than Emirates, competes fiercely for passenger and cargo traffic. In the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index, it comes just two places behind the UAE. Oman reckons its port at Duqm, on the Indian Ocean, is more favourable than Jebel Ali, since ships would not have to pass through the busy Strait of Hormuz to reach it. Saudi Arabia is investing $500 billion in infrastructure by 2020, including building new cities to spur economic development, a financial centre, a metro, and new universities and schools. Bahrain and Kuwait are spending on infrastructure too.

卡塔爾前不久開放了新的機場。在規(guī)模上次于阿聯(lián)酋航空，大于阿提哈德航空的卡塔爾航空公司（Qatar Airways）正激烈競爭著客流量和貨運量。對比世界銀行物流績效指數(shù)，它的排名僅落后阿聯(lián)酋兩位。阿曼則自認其在印度洋上的杜克姆港比阿里山港更有競爭力，因為船只無需再通過繁忙的霍爾木茲海峽才能抵達阿曼。沙特阿拉伯預計在2020年之前投資5000億美元進行基礎設施建設，包括修建新城市以刺激經濟發(fā)展、新的金融中心、地鐵和高等院校。巴林和科威特也在增加基礎建設支出。

The question is whether such grand projects make economic sense when oil prices are collapsing and stock markets are declining across the region. Even Dubai has proved fallible. It is only six years since a real estate crash forced Dubai World, the state holding company, to seek a bail-out from Abu Dhabi. The 828-metre-high Burj Dubai tower was quickly renamed Burj Khalifa, after the saviour, Sheikh Khalifa.

由于整個地區(qū)油價下跌，股票市場低靡，這些龐大項目能否產生經濟效益就成了問題。其實迪拜經常犯錯是有目共睹的。六年前，房地產市場崩盤迫使其國有控股公司迪拜世界（Dubai World）向阿布達比酋長國尋求應急之策。所以828米高的迪拜塔（Burj Dubai）很快被救星謝赫·哈利法（Sheikh Khalifa）更名為哈利法塔。

譯者注：
[1] 阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西（Abdelfattah al Sisi）：現(xiàn)任埃及總統(tǒng)。曾擔任埃及武裝部隊最高委員會主席、第一副總理、國防部長。軍銜為元帥。少壯派軍官的典型代表。除了和美國關系密切，塞西和不少阿拉伯國家，尤其是海灣國家交情也不錯。
[2] 迪拉姆：阿聯(lián)酋流通鑄幣，幣值換算為1迪拉姆=100費爾，1美元 = 3.67345迪拉姆。同時也指王徽，盾徽上端的王冠象征王國是君主立憲制，綠色五角星是摩洛哥國旗之標志。